Yellen: ‘Highly likely’ debt brink is early June

McCarthy told reporters in the Capitol on Monday that he still thinks it’s possible to beat Yellen’s June 1 target for action to raise the debt limit, which would require negotiators to strike a deal in just a matter of days.

Complicating the time crunch is the congressional calendar, although both chambers can always quickly change their plans. The House is scheduled for a break the week of May 29, while the Senate is out this week, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer warning lawmakers in the upper chamber that they will have 24-hours notice if they are needed back in town for action on the debt ceiling.

Over the weekend, Yellen said June 1 is a “hard deadline,” despite the contentions of some Republicans who have disputed the X-date warning as a political ploy. “The odds of reaching June 15th while being able to pay all of our bills is quite low,” the secretary said.

Another estimate from Mark Zandi, the chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, puts the drop dead date at June 8, which would give lawmakers another critical week to tie up the legislative loose ends, if they’re able to hammer out an agreement. For now, Republican and White House negotiators are treating June 1 as their cutoff date for action, so the U.S. doesn’t stumble into an economy-rattling default.

“I think June 1 is the earliest X-date possible, but the most likely X-date is June 8,” Zandi said in an interview last week. “If I’m wrong, then the next likely X-date is in late July.”