New daily COVID cases in PH could further drop to 3K, NCR to 400 cases by December — OCTA

FRESHNESS OVERLOAD In this photo taken in October 2020, business at the vegetable trading post in the Benguet capital town of La Trinidad continues as assorted fresh produce are unloaded there daily for shipment to different markets in Baguio City, Metro Manila and other parts of the country. —EV ESPIRITU

MANILA, Philippines — The number of coronavirus cases in the country could further drop to at least 3,000 to 4,000 infections daily by December, while Metro Manila could see 400 to 600 new daily cases, OCTA Research said Wednesday.

“ November, we are projecting an average of 6k new cases per day in the country. December this could go down to 3,000 or 4,000, but it depends if the trends continue,” OCTA Research’s Guido David told in a text message.


“In NCR (National Capital Region), we could be at less than 1,000 (cases) per day by November and 400 to 600 by December,” he added.

David’s latest projection was lower than his estimates last September 29, where he said the country could have

5,000 to 6,000 new coronavirus cases per day

by December.


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On Tuesday, the OCTA fellow said that the current seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the capital region was at 1,933, the lowest since the week covering July 31 to August 6. The

reproduction number

, or the number of persons being infected by a positive case, was at 0.61, lower than the 0.74 from the previous week.

Metro Manila is currently classified as moderate risk for COVID-19 based on OCTA’s metrics.

“Definitely alert level 3 should be considered and even alert level 2 is possible,” David added.

Metro Manila

is placed under alert level 4 until October 15.

Meanwhile, the country’s seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases as of October 10 was at 10,452, the lowest since the week covering August 6 to 12. The reproduction number in the entire country was at 0.69.

Metro Manila currently has 16,953 active COVID cases while the entire country has 82,228 active cases of the disease.


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