‘End game’ for COVID-19 Delta variant; NCR reproduction number down to 1.11 — Octa fellow

Dr. Guido David shares COVID-19 updates during the Pandesal Forum. (Screengrab from Kamuning Bakery Cafe’s Facebook page)

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is possibly at the “end game” of the Delta variant as COVID-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) dropped to 1.11, Octa Research Team fellow Dr. Guido David said on Tuesday.

“The reproduction number has also decreased. It’s now about 1.11 in the NCR. So, this confirms what we’re seeing that it’s close to now a

downward trend,

” David said during the Pandesal forum.


“We’re actually very optimistic — well, at least me. My perspective is that based on what we’re seeing in many other countries which have seen the rise and fall of the Delta variant and this includes countries like India and Indonesia, of course now, I think we’re at the what we’d might call the end game of the Delta variant because it’s already starting to decrease,” he further explained.

David also noted that the growth rate in NCR is now below zero over the past few days.


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“We’re seeing several LGUs (local government units) with a negative growth rate… We’re also seeing a negative growth rate… in Cavite, in Laguna, and also in Bulacan,” he mentioned.

‘Better days, good Christmas’

With this development, David said that he looks forward to better days in the remaining quarter of 2021.

“I’m sharing the optimism that the rest of the year will look good for the Philippines. Hopefully, many of our businesses that have been affected will be able to recover this coming fourth quarter,” he said.

Further, David noted the country’s sufficient level of COVID-19 vaccinations and

low death rate for immunized individuals

, among others, which may result in a better Christmas this year.


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